Labour market indicators

Earnings growth over the economy in February to April 2025 was 5.2%, down from 5.5% in the previous period.

Pay across the economy is increasing, even after taking inflation into account — but this doesn’t tell us anything about distribution or individual pay rates. The rate of real earnings growth has slowed significantly.

Comparing month-by-month annual regular earnings growth to RPI inflation (the preferred measure of union negotiators), the rate of increase in real earnings fell from 2% or more for every month since September 2024 to just 0.8% in the three months to April 2025.

This is primarily due to the spike in inflation, but nominal earnings growth has also slowed.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham commented: “As real wages slow again, we have to remember that growth and profits don’t always equal jobs and wages. This country needs a joined-up industrial strategy and ambitious public investment to escape the never-ending cost-of-living crisis.”

Employment data for April 2025 show that the labour market continues to slow. Payroll jobs decreased by 55,000 (0.2%) between March and April 2025, and were down 115,000 (0.4%) between April 2024 and April 2025.

Early estimates for May 2025 showed a further decrease of 109,000 on the month, although these numbers are uncertain.